It would involve complicated negotiations, agreement on a start date, and probably a transitional period. The SNP advocates an independent Scotland joining the EU, and using sterling unilaterally, pending the adoption of a new Scottish currency. But a different future for Scotland might be possible.
That future would be a close economic and political relationship with NUK, based on a customs union, a comprehensive free-trade agreement, a common travel area, a pact on defence, and, possibly, a pact on sterling and a banking union. They are also likely to be downplayed or dismissed by the SNP.
Their plan for a pact on sterling was rejected by the UK Government in the referendum, they have moved on, and a customs union with the UK would rule out Scotland joining the EU. Yet none of this should close down a broader conversation about the future of an independent Scotland. A key advantage for both parties would be the avoidance of a customs border between the two.
Such a border would be an inevitable consequence of Scottish independence, whether Scotland joined the EU or not, unless Scotland and NUK entered into a customs union. These arrangements would ensure that there was no visible border between Scotland and NUK. It would strain Scottish resources to do this alone, and it would threaten the security of NUK as well as Scotland if, as a result, the task were undertaken less effectively than it is at present. The defence pact could provide for close cooperation and interoperability between Scottish and NUK armed forces and intelligence services, for the purposes of homeland defence and broader NATO operations.
There could be arrangements for cooperation on air and maritime surveillance and response. The Lossiemouth airbase in north-east Scotland could be home for fighter squadrons and maritime patrol aircraft operated by both the RAF and the Scottish Air Force.
Input from radar stations on both sides of the border could be pooled as it is now, to common advantage. The UK nuclear deterrent would have to leave Scotland and its future would be called in question. The UK Government will have to accept that this will be the position. Contingency planning should focus on a transfer of the nuclear deterrent from its two bases on the Clyde to alternative sites in England or Wales.
Relocation would require expensive adaptation of the new sites , and this could take a decade. For the sake of political argument, the costs might be set against savings resulting from the fact that the UK Government would no longer make financial transfers to Scotland which exceeded the taxes raised in Scotland , but this would not foreclose argument on the future of the UK deterrent.
But nor could Scottish independence. Officials are reported to have discussed permanent relocation to France or the USA , but this would call in question the genuine independence of the UK deterrent.
Opponents said it could not possibly raise enough taxes to fund its high levels of public spending and that it would be forced to leave the European Union to boot.
It was largely an appeal to pragmatism not emotion, a transactional rather than a cultural case for the UK. It became known, thanks to an ill-advised joke by one of its advisers, as Project Fear.
Effective at the time, the message's durability is now in doubt for three reasons. First, the more that campaigners for the union highlight Scotland's dependence on tax receipts from the richer south east of England, the less attractive such a state of affairs may appear. Increasing numbers of voters in England are asking why they should be writing the cheques and many north of the border are wondering why Scotland is poorer than other parts of the UK in the first place.
Secondly, it did not resolve widespread Scottish discontent about being ruled, at a UK level, by a Conservative party, which is consistently far less popular north of the border. Thirdly, and perhaps most obviously, it assumed those British waters would remain calm and the voyage serene.
In Scotland, the one million people who wanted to leave the EU were far less than the 1. The leave vote was unaffected by Scotland and Northern Ireland favouring remain, prompting Nicola Sturgeon to declare that there had been a "material change" in circumstances which justified asking Scots whether they had now changed their minds about rejecting independence.
Not far from the US president Donald Trump's golf course on the Aberdeenshire coast, Michelle Stephen farms some ewes and 10 rams or tups, as they're known in Scotland. She opposes Brexit and worries about its impact but she does have concerns about independence which are practical and specific.
This is the conflicting effect of Brexit on Scotland's current constitutional debate. One argument holds that it strengthens the political case for leaving the UK Scotland didn't vote for it , the other that it weakens the economic case why compound the uncertainty? The SNP's major argument is that decisions about what is best for future governance are fundamentally different depending on whether you are in London or Edinburgh. This is the case for independence it is likely to advance in any future referendum.
It wants Scotland to have the ability to implement policies tailored to the specific needs of the Scottish, rather than the UK, economy. Ms Sturgeon has confirmed that her party's manifesto for next May's Scottish Parliament elections will contain a commitment to a second referendum, or indyref2 as it has become known on social media.
She is hoping to win a majority of seats and the polls suggest that outcome is likely. But the power to hold a referendum resides with Westminster. The poll was only arranged when London agreed to temporarily transfer that power to Edinburgh. Mr Johnson has repeatedly insisted that he will not consent to a second vote but there are indications that some members of his governing Conservative party regard that position as unsustainable.
Since BP discovered the giant Forties field in the North Sea off Aberdeen in , the 'black gold' has fuelled the independence movement. For years the party pointed to prosperous Norway, which used the proceeds of its share of North Sea oil to set up a vastly profitable investment fund, as an example of the wealth an independent Scotland could enjoy.
The UK government, which controls the tax revenue from the British sector of the North Sea, most of which is in Scottish waters, never set up such a fund.
Those arguments have faded as the price of the commodity has collapsed, the industry has contracted, with thousands of job losses in Aberdeen, and the conversation about tackling climate change has made it politically trickier to extol the benefits of fossil fuels.
In the run-up to the referendum, the Scottish government published a prospectus for independence which mentioned the word "oil" more than times. Mr Foster did something unusual for this year. He started a business. A few years ago, as a schoolboy keen to earn some money, he had asked his grandmother to teach him how to make jam.
Within a week he had sold 50 jars. And in lockdown he went one step further, opening a farm shop with the help of his parents. He adds: "There's just not the money there any more to go independent. Leaving the UK, he says, would lead to a "massive crash in the economy".
It's got the pound. In , as an active member of the Labour Party in Aberdeenshire, Ms Millar campaigned for the union under the umbrella of the official "No" campaign, which was styled Better Together, an uneasy alliance of Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat politicians. She says the black gold did not benefit the poorer parts of Scotland's oil capital. Rather, the profits went to wealthy suburbs and multinational companies while the tax revenues flowed to Whitehall.
Not surprisingly, opponents of independence - including the prime minister - don't want another vote on the issue. They argue that the referendum was, in Ms Sturgeon's own words at the time, a once-in-a-generation opportunity - which Mr Johnson has suggested should mean another one should not be held for about 40 years. Unionists say Ms Sturgeon and her government should be focusing on tackling Covid and improving public services like health and education rather than independence.
They also say that rejoining the EU would not be a straightforward process for an independent Scotland - and could potentially lead to a hard border between Scotland and England.
And they accuse the SNP of failing to give clear answers to key questions over issues such as currency. There have been divisions in the SNP on how to secure another referendum. Ms Sturgeon has predicted that the UK government's hardline stance will crumble if there is another pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament after May.
But some MPs and grassroots independence supporters are not convinced that this will happen, and have accused Ms Sturgeon and the SNP hierarchy of being too cautious. This may be partly why a draft bill has now been published, setting out how a referendum can be held once the Covid pandemic ends if the May elections produces another pro-independence majority at Holyrood.
The Scottish government has not given a specific date, but says it wants a referendum to be held in the first half of the next parliamentary term. It says there can be "no democratic justification whatsoever" for Westminster to attempt to block it - but has not said what it will do if formal consent is not forthcoming.
Opinion polls, excluding don't-knows, had previously suggested a narrow majority of Scots want to remain in the UK - but things appeared to have shifted over the past year, with more than 20 consecutive polls indicating majority support for independence.
However, polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice says support for the SNP and for independence is now consistently lower in the polls than it was at the beginning of the year. This represents a five-point fall in support for independence compared with the position in the last half dozen polls conducted before the end of last year.
Sir John also said it was the first time that No have been ahead in a running average of the polls since this time last year.
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